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Forget NFL, NCAANFL football is where the betting profits lie01.12.17

Many newer bettors reason that since NFL games are where the big action is, both in terms of viewership and dollar amounts bet that they should concentrate all of their football betting on that one sport. And there is some reason for them to think this way. After all, the biggest sports bettors in history like Billy Walters and Lefty Rosenthal made large portions of their sports betting fortunes specifically on betting the NFL. But for a newer sports bettor, there are many downsides to betting on big money games like the NFL. In fact, the NCAA holds some major advantages for newer players precisely because the average NCAA football game has vastly less interest and less money going into it. Let’s take a look at some of the problems with NFL betting and how those problems are either absent or resolved in the context of NCAA football betting.

Big-money means big-time competition and low edges, if any

Here’s the first thing any entrant to the world of sports betting should realize: The sports betting market is a financial market. All the rules of finance apply to sports. One fundamental truth of financial markets that you’ll hear guys like Warren Buffet talk about is how much easier it is for those with less capital to make x% per year than if they had much larger funds. The reason is because as capital increases, the universe of possible bets decreases dramatically. If Warren Buffet wants to make 20% a year, he’s looking to keep 200 billion plus dollars invested at all times. All the companies with that kind of market cap are analyzed to death by the best minds in finance because so much money is at stake. Thus it becomes very hard to find pricing errors at that level.

Exactly the same thing is true with sports. NFL football games are the sports equivalent of Exxon Mobile. The absolute sharpest handicappers and syndicates are all analyzing every game with huge staff and resources. Pricing errors are extremely rare. This makes it difficult if not impossible to find edges on NFL games unless you’re one of the best of the best. For more on NFL odds see covers.com.

With NCAA football, you can find games where there are only a few hundred bets being placed at a given sports book. No one is spending too much time analyzing inconsequential Division III games. This means pricing errors abound and, although you won’t be able to bet $1 million on a given game without moving the line, you can bet $1000 with a 20% edge. For more on NCAA football odds please visit covers.com.

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